SIENA PREDICTS 27% OF THE VOTE
CANDIDATE GETS 59%
BAD SAMPLING TO BLAME
Pollster: 'We got it wrong'September 11, 2013 (WROC-TV Rochester): Siena College bombed last week's poll on the Rochester Democratic mayoral primary. The poll predicted incumbent Mayor Tom Richards had 63 percent of likely voter support versus 27 percent for Lovely Warren. On Primary Day, Warren captured 59 percent of the vote.
"We got it wrong. I feel bad," said pollster Don Levy... Levy said the Rochester poll had a bad sample.
See the story from WROC-TV Channel 8.
SIENA COLLEGE POLL: MARGIN OF ERROR
Over the past ten years, Siena College pollsters have been wrong more than any other outfit in New York State.
In a given election year, it's not unusual for Siena to call multiple major races wrong, and to report ten, 20, or even 30-point swings in the vote.
New York pollster has called so many races wrong,
and no New York pollster releases such bizarre
fluctuations in their
results than Siena College. While polling numbers always fluctuate, due
to statistical sampling and the electioneering of campaigns, only Siena
consistently reports such wild swings.
Here are some of the worst examples of highly questionable polling from Siena. See the data yourself at <http://www.siena.edu/pages/3390.asp?qs=ny>.
The question becomes, Why?
TWELVE OF THE SIENA COLLEGE POLL’S GREATEST MISSES
2010: SIENA SAYS SCHNEIDERMAN WILL JUST SQUEAK BY; WINS BY LANDSLIDESiena's Halloween poll had Eric Schneiderman tied with Dan Donovan in the Attorney General race, 44%-44%. Schneiderman dominated two days later, 52%-40%. According to Siena, that would be an unlikely swing of 12 points - or 570,000 voters - in 48 hours. (October 31, 2010, moe 4.0%)
2010: HANNA WILL LOSE; HE WINSIn the last poll in the 24th Congressional District, Siena put Mike Arcuri ahead of Richard Hanna, 48%-43%. But on Election Day it was Hanna who won, by the even larger margin of 51%-45%. (October 27, 2010, moe 3.9%)
WILD SWINGS IN LONG ISLAND SENATE RACE
Siena reported huge swings in a Long Island Senate race: a 15-point move in just a matter of weeks. In their September poll, Siena had Brian Foley leading Lee Zeldin 44%-43%. But in their next poll four weeks later, Zeldin led 53%-37%. (October 26, 2010, moe 3.8%; September 17, 2010, moe 4.0%)
2010: MAFFEI WILL WIN; HE LOSESSiena reported in October that Dan Maffei would defeat Ann Marie Buerkle in their Syracuse Congressional district, 51%-39%. This poll was roundly criticized by political observers for being inconsistent with other polls released at the time. Buerkle went on to win by 1%. (October 17, 2010, moe 3.9%)
2010: SIENA GIVES BISHOP A 12-POINT LEAD; BISHOP WINS BY 1When Siena last polled the Long Island Congressional race between Tim Bishop and Randy Altschuler, Altschuler was trailing, 51%-39%. But only a few weeks later, Bishop barely squeaked by, defeating Altschuler by 1%. (October 13, 2010, moe 4.0%)
2010: AVELLA SWINGS MORE THAN 30 POINTS ON FRANK PADAVANIn September, Siena put Frank Padavan ahead of Tony Avella in their Queens Senate district, 56%-32%. Avella won with 51% of the vote, a 32-point swing. (September 30, 2010, moe 4.8%)
2010: UNPRECEDENTED 26-POINT SWING IN ALBANY CONGRESSIONAL RACEChris Gibson went from 17 points down in a September poll to 9 points up in October. Gibson went on to defeat Scott Murphy in their Albany Congressional district. (September 17, 2010, moe 4.0%; October 26, 2010, moe 3.8%)
2010: LAZIO TIES PALADINO; LAZIO GETS CRUSHEDIn their most infamous mistake, Siena missed the Republican gubernatorial primary between Rick Lazio and Carl Paladino by 25 points. The weekend before the election, Siena pronounced the Republican race tied, Lazio 43%-Paladino 42%. Three days later, Carl Paladino won with 62% of the vote. (September 11, 2010, margin of error 4.0%)
2009: SPANO LOSES 21 POINTS IN FOUR DAYS?
In this Westchester
County Executive race, Siena put Andy Spano ahead of Rob Astorino the
weekend before the election, 48%-41%. Astorino won four days later,
57%-43%. (October 30,
2009, moe 4.5%)
2008: TRUNZO-FOLEY ROLLER COASTER ON LONG ISLAND
Siena's fall poll in
this Long Island Senate district put Caesar Trunzo ahead of Brian
Foley, 46%-40%. But in their next poll, Foley led, 56%-34%, a swing of
28 points. (November 2,
2008, moe 4.9%; September 24, 2008, 4.9%)
2008: HANNON TO CRUSH MCELROY; HANNON SQUEAKS BY
another Long Island
Senate district, Siena gave Kemp Hannon a 26-point lead over Kristen
McElroy, 56%-30%. Two days later, Hannon survived the closest race of
his political career, 52%-48%. (November
2, 2008, moe 4.8%)
2005: THEY LOVE PATAKI; THEY HATE PATAKI; THEY LOVE HIM AGAIN -- IN FOUR MONTHS
Siena regularly tested
George Pataki's numbers, but they couldn't decide if Pataki was popular
or unpopular. In just four months, Pataki's favorable rating flipped
from 37% favorable-50% unfavorable, to 50% favorable-39% unfavorable,
back to a negative 40%-53%, and finally to a positive 52%-40% -- an
average move of 24% each month. (July
20, 2005, moe 3.9%; May 11, 2005, moe 3.9%; April 11, 2005, moe
4.1%; March 8, 2005, moe 4.0%)
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