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2010:
SIENA SAYS SCHNEIDERMAN WILL JUST SQUEAK BY; WINS BY LANDSLIDE
Siena's Halloween poll
had Eric Schneiderman tied with Dan Donovan in the Attorney General
race, 44%-44%. Schneiderman dominated two days later, 52%-40%.
According to Siena, that would be an unlikely swing of 12
points - or 570,000 voters - in 48 hours. (October 31, 2010, moe
4.0%)
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2010:
HANNA WILL LOSE; HE WINS
In the last poll in the
24th Congressional District, Siena put Mike Arcuri ahead of Richard
Hanna, 48%-43%. But on Election Day it was Hanna who won, by the even
larger margin of 51%-45%. (October
27, 2010, moe
3.9%)
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2010:
WILD SWINGS IN LONG ISLAND SENATE RACE
Siena reported huge
swings in a Long Island Senate race: a 15-point move in just a matter
of weeks. In their September poll, Siena had Brian Foley leading Lee
Zeldin 44%-43%. But in their next poll four weeks later, Zeldin led
53%-37%. (October 26,
2010, moe 3.8%; September 17, 2010, moe 4.0%)
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2010:
MAFFEI WILL WIN; HE LOSES
Siena reported in
October that Dan Maffei would defeat Ann Marie Buerkle in their
Syracuse Congressional district, 51%-39%. This poll was roundly
criticized by political observers for being inconsistent with
other polls released at the time. Buerkle went on to win by 1%. (October 17, 2010, moe 3.9%)
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2010:
SIENA GIVES BISHOP A 12-POINT LEAD; BISHOP WINS BY 1
When Siena last polled
the Long Island Congressional race between Tim Bishop and Randy
Altschuler, Altschuler was trailing, 51%-39%. But only a few weeks
later, Bishop barely squeaked by, defeating Altschuler by 1%. (October 13, 2010, moe 4.0%)
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2010:
AVELLA SWINGS MORE THAN 30 POINTS ON FRANK PADAVAN
In September, Siena put
Frank Padavan ahead of Tony Avella in their Queens Senate district,
56%-32%. Avella won with 51% of the vote, a 32-point swing. (September 30, 2010, moe 4.8%)
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2010:
UNPRECEDENTED 26-POINT SWING IN ALBANY CONGRESSIONAL RACE
Chris Gibson went from
17 points down in a September poll to 9 points up in October. Gibson
went on to defeat Scott Murphy in their Albany Congressional district. (September 17, 2010, moe 4.0%;
October 26,
2010, moe 3.8%)
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2010:
LAZIO TIES PALADINO; LAZIO GETS CRUSHED
In their most infamous
mistake, Siena missed the Republican gubernatorial primary between Rick
Lazio and Carl Paladino by 25 points. The weekend before the election,
Siena pronounced the Republican race tied, Lazio 43%-Paladino 42%.
Three days later, Carl Paladino won with 62% of the vote. (September 11,
2010, margin of error 4.0%)
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2009:
SPANO LOSES 21 POINTS IN FOUR DAYS?
In this Westchester
County Executive race, Siena put Andy Spano ahead of Rob Astorino the
weekend before the election, 48%-41%. Astorino won four days later,
57%-43%. (October 30,
2009, moe 4.5%)
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2008:
TRUNZO-FOLEY ROLLER COASTER ON LONG ISLAND
Siena's fall poll in
this Long Island Senate district put Caesar Trunzo ahead of Brian
Foley, 46%-40%. But in their next poll, Foley led, 56%-34%, a swing of
28 points. (November 2,
2008, moe 4.9%; September 24, 2008, 4.9%)
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2008:
HANNON TO CRUSH MCELROY; HANNON SQUEAKS BY
In
another Long Island
Senate district, Siena gave Kemp Hannon a 26-point lead over Kristen
McElroy, 56%-30%. Two days later, Hannon survived the closest race of
his political career, 52%-48%. (November
2, 2008, moe 4.8%)
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2005:
THEY LOVE PATAKI; THEY HATE PATAKI; THEY LOVE HIM AGAIN -- IN FOUR
MONTHS
Siena regularly tested
George Pataki's numbers, but they couldn't decide if Pataki was popular
or unpopular. In just four months, Pataki's favorable rating flipped
from 37% favorable-50% unfavorable, to 50% favorable-39% unfavorable,
back to a negative 40%-53%, and finally to a positive 52%-40% -- an
average move of 24% each month. (July
20, 2005, moe 3.9%; May 11, 2005, moe 3.9%; April 11, 2005, moe
4.1%; March 8, 2005, moe 4.0%)
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